ABC's Matt Dowd argues that Democrats have much more to lose than Republicans in 2016.
The storyline by many in the media goes as follows: the GOP is in dire straits, they are in the midst of tearing themselves apart by a civil war, they have a disorganized field of candidates, they are about to lose badly for president and are on the verge of disintegrating as a major party.
That is how a number of folks in the media (and many Democratic operatives/insiders) describe the circumstances of the GOP dilemma at hand and ahead. Some of this is true, and looks bad for the GOP, but some of it is just fiction. But let's take a moment to understand what party faces the biggest problems ahead in the aftermath of a loss in the presidential race next November.
Ha. "...folks in the media (and many Democratic operatives/insiders)..." To paraphrase Mark Twain, Mr. Dowd repeats himself. But to get back to the question at hand, Mr. Dowd cautions that the media/Democratic alliance may be misreading the state of the electorate and the potentially negative outcomes for Democrats. Mr. Dowd lays out his analysis:
Reasonable worst case scenario for the GOP: they lose the presidential race, lose control of the United States Senate by a few votes, lose a few seats in the House of Representatives but retain control, and retain a majority of governor's and state legislative bodies.
Reasonable best case scenario for the GOP: they win the presidential race, expand control of the Senate, retain control of the House, and expand majority of governor's and state legislative bodies.
Reasonable worst case scenario for the Dems: they lose the presidential race, lose seats in the Senate, don't gain control of the House, and lose more governor's and state legislative races.
Reasonable best case scenario for the Dems: they win the presidential race, gain control of the Senate by a slim margin, pick up a few seats in the House but don't control, and win a few governor's races and legislative seats.
It's not an unrealistic assessment, but it misses one huge Democratic advantage. If the Dems win the presidency in 2016 they will also control our federal bureaucracy, which is no small thing. In a continuation of the Obama administration, the efforts of the DOJ, the IRS, the EPA, the NLRB, and a host of other federal agencies will be directed in ways that are intended to benefit the Democratic party. Electing a Democrat for president will mandate a continuation of the Obama administration policies which direct federal agencies to bypass the Republican Congress by interpreting regulations in ways that nullify congressional intent. The Department of Justice will claim its prerogative of prosecutorial discretion as it selects which laws to enforce and which to ignore, whom to prosecute and whom not, all of it with an eye toward protecting the progressive grip on government. Targets of federal regulatory efforts will be anyone or anything that threatens progressive control or disseminates anti-progressive information or thought.
If the Dems win the presidency they'll be in a lot better shape than Mr. Dowd seems to think.